People’s unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general is matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.
Rewards for improved performance work better than punishment of mistakes. Strong evidence from pigeons, rats, humans, and other animals.
Success = talent + luck. Great success = a little more talent + a lot of luck
The explanatory stories that people find compelling are simple; are concrete rather than abstract; assign a larger role to talent, stupidity, and intentions than to luck; and focus on a few striking events that happened rather than on the countless events that failed to happen.
Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.