The line that separates the possibly predictable future from the unpredictable distant future is yet to be drawn.
One reason for the inferiority of expert judgement [compared with algorithms] is that humans are incorrigibly inconsistent in making summary judgements of complex information.
Marital stability is better predicted by “frequency of lovemaking minus frequency of arguments” than any expert judgement.
An algorithm that is constructed on the back of an envelope is often good enough to compete with an optimally weighted formula, and certainly good enough to outdo expert judgment. This logic can be applied in many domains, ranging from the selection of stocks by portfolio managers to the choices of medical treatments by doctors or patients.
Simple, statistical rules are superior to intuitive “clinical” judgements.